In his televised speech Sunday night, Nicolas Sarkozy praised the German model of a good dozen times. The Head of State made an apology for Germany to justify its economic reforms – tax shield yesterday, the TFR reform, reinforcement of learning, social VAT, employment agreements competitiveness today and rule of budget or tomorrow. "Germany comes so often in political discourse that can be asked whether the president will not be a referendum on the German economic model," writes on his blog the deputy editor of Le Figaro Pierre Rousselin. Before voting, the French need to know what's behind the brilliant success of their neighbors across the Rhine.

Germany for the second straight year was the locomotive of the European economy in 2011, with growth of 3% after 3.7% in 2010. In comparison, France has recorded growth of 1.5% in 2010 and should reach painfully 1.7% in 2011. This strong growth has allowed Berlin to reduce its public deficit to 26.7 billion euros, or 1% of GDP. The deficit lights is five times higher. The other great success of Germany, is the dramatic decline in unemployment. The number of unemployed in Germany last year reached 2.976 million on average, the lowest level since the reunification of the country, and 263,000 fewer unemployed than in 2010. The unemployment rate in the country has crude dropped him in 2011 by 0.6 percentage points to 7.1% on average. In France, the opposite: the number of jobseekers rose by 152,000 last year and the unemployment rate is approaching 10%. At our defense, the French population is growing while that of Germany decreases.

The keys to success are known: a specialization in products where global demand remains strong (automotive, chemicals, capital goods, mechanical engineering), a significant number of medium-sized companies (between 250 and 5000 employees) called "Mittelstand" across the Rhine, a tradition and know-how in new markets, a training system in favor of including in business, the massive use of short-and a good social dialogue on wages and employment. "The secret of the German model, the industry, firm size, the co-decision and competitiveness," notes Jean-Claude Betbèze, chief economist at Credit Lyonnais, which does not hide his admiration for Economic Policy the country. Left to accept the painful counterparties.

Excessive wage compression German

For this coin has several setbacks. To restore its competitiveness, which had deteriorated sharply in the years following 1990 reunification, Germany has practiced under the leadership of the former Social Democratic Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, a moderate wage policy in the early 2000. Policy that has increased sharply in 2003 and 2005 when launched an unprecedented series of reforms to the labor market more flexible. Known as the "Hartz" reforms including creating the mini-jobs, jobs that pay can not exceed 400 euros per month, which can be exercised in parallel on welfare or in more than one job "traditional".

Their goal is to encourage theoretical maximum of the unemployed to return to the world of work. Benefit to employers: "mini-jobs" are almost completely exempt from payroll taxes. Employers have tended to replace the mini-jobs to full-time classical contracts taxed, resulting in a sharp increase in part-time and an additional downward pressure on wages. Result: While Germany has expanded its exports increased between 2000 and 2010, but wages have declined in nominal terms (they have risen less than inflation). The median net monthly salary has lost 7.4% in 10 years across the Rhine, while the average annual wage increased by 10.8% in France.

"The compression of wages granted, if it were necessary because of the low productivity of the former East Germany, has gone much too far, deplores Ferdinand Fichtner, an economist at the research institute DIW (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) in Berlin. This has affected the purchasing power of households and the share of consumption in GDP has contracted. Exports jumped and much faster than imports and Germany is now too dependent on foreign trade, "said he. We saw in 2009 at the height of the global economic crisis: German GDP fell 5.1% against a decline of 2.7% in France. And this year, while the euro area – which represents 40% of German exports – is on the brink of recession, the country's GDP expected to grow by only 0.3% according to the IMF.

A growing impoverishment of the population

The other side of the coin is a very strong impoverishment of employees. During the last decade, Germany has created 2 million jobs part time (and some full-time), while France has created 2 million full-time (and very few part-time). The proportion of part-time increased by one third across the Rhine in this period, while it remained stable in France. Germany is the fourth and part-time employees, including 19% (7 million) of mini-jobbers. Yet nearly 90% of these small jobs were classified low or very low wages (less than 9.76 euros gross per hour to the west and less than 7.03 euros per hour to the is). 20% of German employees are paid an hourly minimum wage below the French and 40% have a net monthly salary of less than 1000 euros.

The unemployed – 2.9 million people – are not better off. The last law passed by Schroeder, "Hartz IV", has in fact merged the long-term unemployment benefits and social assistance. Thus, since 2005, after a year of unemployment, the unemployed no longer receive an allowance of 850 euros, including housing assistance. 70% of German unemployed and live below the poverty line. More generally, Germany has 12 million poor (less than 940 euros a month, or 15% of the population against 13.5% in France. At the other end of the scale, hold 2 825 000 Germans, 6 million euros of assets, or 1% of the population who share a quarter of the country's wealth. "The policy of wage deflation conducted in Germany has led to an increase in income inequality at a speed never seen before, even during the shock of reunification after," denounced the International Labour Organization in a report published on 24 in January.

The ILO will even say that Germany is responsible for the crisis in the eurozone. "Improving the competitiveness of German exporters are increasingly identified as the structural cause of the recent difficulties in the euro area," said the UN agency based in Geneva. "In Europe, it created the conditions for a prolonged economic slump, because other countries are increasingly a policy of wage deflation even harder as a solution to their lack of competitiveness," said she . This view is shared in part, Ferdinand Fichtner. "Germany is of course not solely responsible for the debt crisis countries in the euro area, said the German economy. But it is true that the absence of inflation in Germany, due to the contraction of wages, has led the European Central Bank to conduct monetary policy too expansionary [low interest rates, note] for Greece, Spain, Portugal or Ireland. In these countries, access to easy credit Cheap and fed an artificial increase in wages and housing bubbles. "

The German model has, in the end, the virtues of which France would be right to draw, particularly in respect of industrial specialization, the ability of firms to be exported and enter new markets or the quality of dialogue social development. But every copy would be to bring down our social model, model once touted by Nicolas Sarkozy for his ability to have cushioned the shock of the global economic crisis.

The news is almost unnoticed but it is huge. This is another step in Beijing's policy to internationalize the Chinese currency. The Chinese government seeks to ensure that the renminbi becomes progressively currency regulations of global trade flows. He also wants it to become a reserve currency, equal to the dollar and the euro.

The order of revocation of three licenses for shale gas from Total and the U.S. Schuepbach in the south of France was published in the Official Gazette Thursday, confirming the government's announcement on 3 October. The three exclusive licenses for oil exploration so-called "Montelimar" (Total) "haves" and "Villeneuve de Berg" (Schuepach), which had been granted in March 2010, are repealed, according to the decree of the Ministry of Economy, Finance and Industry.

These three licenses cover an area of ​​9,672 km square in seven departments in the south of France, Ardeche, Drome, Vaucluse, Gard, Hérault, Aveyron and Lozère, where they raised a strong mobilization of opponents. The government announced on October 3 the repeal of the three licenses, which he said are the only ones among the 64 research permits oil and gas in France to cover only those shale gas. These repeals are consequential to the enactment of legislation in July banning the controversial technique of hydraulic fracturing used to extract the shale gas, making France the first country to prohibit.

Total expressed its "surprise" at the announcement of the loss of his license, explicitly pointing out that he had engaged in a report to the Department to comply with the law and not to use fracturing.The group, which was waiting for an explanation, has not yet decided whether to make an appeal. In a letter dated Wednesday to head the European shale gas in total, of which AFP has had a copy, the Department of Energy Department estimates that the French oil giant did not "sufficiently explained" the alternative technologies which he intended to use.

"I see you does not adequately explain the alternative technologies that you plan to use as part of an exploration of the potential of shale gas area, thus the government, contrary to the will of the legislature unable to appreciate the reality of your commitment not to use the technique of hydraulic fracturing, "wrote the director. Questioned by AFP, Total declined to comment immediately.In an opinion dated October 10th that the AFP has consulted the General Council of Industry, Energy and Technology (CGIET) estimates that the total license can not be repealed unless it is established that his report was "insufficient in view of the accuracy requirements of the legislature" on the techniques used.

The Texas Schuepbach, in his report, he had said he intended to continue to use hydraulic fracturing, in Bercy, which had automatically excluded. The remaining 61 exploration licenses have been validated them. After the U.S. has waived Toreador Oil shale east of Paris, only eight are for non-conventional hydrocarbons (coal gas), but their owners have all given up fracturing.

The benchmark Shanghai Stock Exchange has sold nearly 17% since the beginning of the year in part because of fears of monetary tightening and a slowdown in the Chinese economy.

The purchase of shares started Monday is the first undertaken by Central Huijin Investment since the financial crisis of 2008-2009 and are the first step to support the stock market officially recognized by the authorities.

Huijin is a subsidiary of sovereign fund China Investment Corp, rich $ 400 billion, already the largest shareholder of the first four banks.It began on Monday to buy back shares in the past, reported the official news agency Xinhua after the closure of local markets.

"In fact, the government acts to show his confidence because he believes that current valuations are a bit below the reasonable level," said Victor Wang, a Chinese banking analyst for Macquarie Securities.

Agricultural Bank of China and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China stated later that Huijin had bought 39.1 million and 14.6 million respectively of their shares listed in Shanghai.

HONG KONG ENDS IN NET INCREASE

Huijin intends to continue increasing its investments within a year, said the two groups in the stock exchanges of Hong Kong.

The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong, where stock markets close later than those in Shanghai and Shenzhen, has made significant progress in recent trading following the announcement of investment Huijin.

Beijing authorities had already been used to support Huijin over the banks in September 2008. At the time, the Shanghai Stock Exchange had rebounded 9.5% after the announcement of these purchases, a field it had abandoned over the following weeks.

Last month, Chinese media had reported that the public pension fund received approval to invest 10 billion yuan (1.6 billion dollars) on the local stock market.And in August, official media had reported that Chinese insurers mostly controlled by the state had invested billions in the stock market.

Some analysts believe that the government could also hinder the IPO, as it did in the past in times of stock market slump.

At 9:05, the CAC 40 index advances 2.57% at 2923.78 points.

The London Stock Exchange gained 2.27%, 2.15% that of Frankfurt and Milan up 1.34%.

The pan-European Euro Stoxx 50 index rose 2.1%

European banks index was up 2.98%

The International Monetary Fund has lowered its growth forecasts Tuesday for the world economy, saying it had "considerably weakened" and that it would continue its slow growth.

Projections of the institution semestrilles global growth to fall to a rate of about 4% until the end of 2012, against more than 5% in 2010. "The real GDP of advanced countries will expand by about anemic 1.5% in 2011 and 2% in 2012, thanks to the relaxation of the forces that have temporarily slowed the activity in most of the second quarter of 2011," specifies the institution. But these forecasts modest growth are subject to various conditions.Otherwise, Europe and the U.S. may fall into recession.

"The activity has weakened considerably," wrote economists from the IMF, recalling that it was "surprisingly low during the second quarter," in Western countries. The United States and are now credited with a GDP increase of1, 5% in 2011 against 2.5 previously. A performance that exceed those of Japan and Italy in the G7. Europe is obviously not spared the forecast growth in the euro area is thus reduced to 1.6% against 2% in 2011 before seeing his own France, reduced to 1.7% this year (-0, 4 point) and even 1.4% next year (-0.5 point).The German locomotive should work to slow sharply to 2.5% this year (forecast revised down 0.5 point) to 1.3% next year!

"In developed economies hit by the crisis, particularly in the United States, the handover of public demand to private demand is taking longer than anticipated. Moreover, the problems of debt and banking sector the euro area were much tougher than expected, "noted the Fund. He also cautions against too fast a pace of fiscal consolidation that has already begun to weigh on activity. It also shows no illusions about the risk that "consumption in advanced economies is likely to remain sluggish" and that unemployment remains "high for a while."In the end, he says, global growth will be driven mainly by developing Asia (8.2%), an oasis of prosperity, and other emerging economies.

Most disturbing is that these forecasts bleak to say the least, are conditional. They assume, in fact, "that European leaders Dam the crisis on the periphery of the euro area, that U.S. policymakers find the right balance between supporting the economy and the fiscal consolidation over the medium term and volatility global financial markets does not get worse. " In addition, they depend on the willingness of central banks to keep monetary policy accommodative enough. If these conditions are not met, then "the major developed economies could fall into recession," they warned.

The path seems particularly close to the euro area."In the peripheral countries, the major challenge will be to find the right balance between fiscal consolidation and structural reforms on the one hand, and external support, on the other, so that the adjustment of their economies to be sustainable. " In other words, reduce the deficit but without breaking growth!

Finally, Europe needs to stabilize its financial system. "The relatively low level of capitalization of banks in the euro area is a source of concern. [...] Difficulties in one country can quickly spread to Europe. From there, it could move to U.S. States – through holding European assets – and the world. " To avoid this nightmare scenario, the IMF intends to "ask the weakened financial institutions to raise more capital, preferably from private sources.Otherwise they will have to accept or to receive injections of public funds or support from EFSF either be restructured or closed. "

The investment bank of the German state, KfW said Monday at 250 billion euros in total investment needed in Germany by 2020 to phase out nuclear power and switch to renewable energy. The bank itself "will make available 100 billion euros over the next five years for investments in energy in Germany," said a statement.KfW believes "to 250 billion euros the amount of additional investment required until 2020" or 25 billion euros per year on average, the burden on businesses, state and individuals.

About 144.6 billion euros of investment are expected to produce renewable energy and 62 billion euros in heating from renewable sources, a detailed study in the bank. Added to 17 billion euros to improve "energy efficiency", ie limit the mess, from 9.7 to 29000000000 to the power grid, and 5.5 to 10 billion euros for Additional gas-fired plants. The bill is likely to rise even during the actual construction of new equipment and if Germany is given more ambitious targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, KfW said.

The bank, which describes itself as "one of the first global capital in the energy," said to have provided financial support last year in Germany 80% of new wind turbines located, and 40% of new photovoltaic systems. It also funds the work of building insulation. KfW is involved in providing credit and financial guarantees, at low rates and long-term. The German government decided after the catastrophe of Fukushima off by the end of 2022 all nuclear reactors in the country, while increasing the share of renewable energy, which should represent 80% of the total electricity production in the country in 2050 , against 17% last year.

The rise of Wall Street, in the first significant trade occurs despite not particularly favorable statistics, the jobless claims first.

The Dow is 0.8% to 11,335.55. The S & P 500 ahead 0.74% to 1197.44.The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.6% 0 2588.

The weekly jobless claims rose against all odds in the United States during the week to September 10, at 428,000 against 417,000 the previous week, said Thursday the Labor Department.

Manufacturing output in the region of New York against all odds the contraction accelerated in September, shows the Empire State index released Thursday, falling to its lowest level since November.

Other indicators were also published.

The inflation rate decelerated slightly in August in the U.S., thanks to higher gasoline prices has also slowed, while prices of new cars have not changed, said the Department of work Thursday.

An indicator was more favorable rating. Industrial production in the United States increased more than expected in August, announced Thursday the Federal Reserve, the manufacturing sector has offset the decline in electricity production.

Values, UBS shares traded in New York plunged nearly 9%. A trader suspected of being linked to losses of some $ 2 billion announced Thursday morning by UBS was arrested in London, said on Thursday from several sources.

A hurricane less devastating than expected on the East Coast of the United States and U.S. household spending higher than expected encouraged such purchases in volumes close on this day of closure of the London Stock Exchange.

The CAC 40 index closed up 2.16% to 3154.20 points, but still showed a decline of more than 14% since the beginning of the month.Transactions reached 1.69 billion euros on the CAC, 24.4% of normal volumes.

"The markets had overreacted to a combination of negative factors, which may explain the current rebound in limited volumes, while the actual activity in the third quarter is a little less bad than expected," said Valerie Plagnol, director of research at Credit Suisse Private Banking."In addition, Bernanke reassured Friday indicating that the Fed still had tools at its disposal to support the U.S. economy."

Jerome Vineria, market analyst at IG Markets, expects a significant rebound in the CAC 40 over the next six weeks, with a target at 3,500 points, corresponding to a 50% retracement of the decline seen since early July.

But Valerie Gastaldy Analyst Day in graphic-By-Day, for his part is convinced that markets remain in a phase of "consolidation and digestion" of the collapse of early August.

Other major European markets, Frankfurt and Milan were awarded respectively 2.39% and 2.3%.The pan-European Euro Stoxx 50 index gained 2.23%.

The Athens Stock Exchange jumped 14.37%, with the announcement of a merger between banks Greek EFG Eurobank and Alpha Bank.

Cyclical stocks have particularly benefited from this renewed optimism, despite having fallen sharply since the beginning of the month.ArcelorMittal returned 4.90% to 14.350 euros, but still shows a decline of more than 34% since the beginning of the month and Vinci won 4.21% to 35.390 euros, while still losing 12.7% over the month.

Similarly, banks in the euro area were up 3.17% despite the statements by Christine Lagarde, director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), stressing the need to restructure European banks.

Renewed investor confidence, however, is unfavorable to the less risky assets such as German government bonds (Bunds) to 10 years, whose performance is trading around 2.22% against nearly 2.15% on Friday at closing.

The euro rose against the greenback at 1.4506 / 09 dollars, against 1.4494 the previous day in the afternoon.

A barrel of U.S. light crude advance of 2.24% to 88.28 dollars and Brent from 0.98% to 112.45 dollars.

"It is clear that the recovery after the crisis was much less robust than we had hoped," he said in a speech he was to deliver at the annual meetings of the Fed's Jackson Hole ( Wyoming).

He added that the Fed would meet two days in September, instead of originally planned to study, among other things, the possibility of providing the economy with a new monetary stimulus.

Reduce unemployment long (more than six months) that a record will achieve stronger economic growth.

"In these exceptional circumstances, a policy that promotes a stronger recovery in the short term could also serve the long-term goals."