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		<title>Orange Austria ceded to the Chinese Hutchison 3G</title>
		<link>http://success-fengshui.com/orange-austria-ceded-to-the-chinese-hutchison-3g/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 04 Feb 2012 03:25:08 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[France Telecom confirmed Friday the sale of Orange to the Chinese Hutchison 3G Austria, a subsidiary of conglomerate Hutchison Whampoa, continuing its asset sales abroad. 
 The transaction is valued at 1.3 billion euros including debt Orange Austria amounting to around 1.1 billion euros. 
 France Telecom, owner of 35% of the operator, said it [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>France Telecom confirmed Friday the sale of Orange to the Chinese Hutchison 3G Austria, a subsidiary of conglomerate Hutchison Whampoa, continuing its asset sales abroad. </p>
<p> The transaction is valued at 1.3 billion euros including debt Orange Austria amounting to around 1.1 billion euros. </p>
<p> France Telecom, owner of 35% of the operator, said it expects to receive &quot;about 70 million&quot; for the sale of its interest. The balance of the proceeds from the sale back to the investment fund Mid Europa Partners, owner of 65% stake in Orange Austria. </p>
<p> The owner of Hutchison Whampoa, the Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka-shing, to expand its presence in Europe. It is already present on the Austrian market through the brand &quot;3&quot;. </p>
<p> After the acquisition of Orange Austria, Hutchison claims the number three spot in the Austrian mobile phone with 2.8 million subscribers and 22% market share. </p>
<p> The combined turnover of the two sociétésa exceeded 700 million euros in 2011 (nearly 500 million for Orange Austria). </p>
<p> In a second step, Hutchison will divest certain assets of Orange Austria (including the mobile operator Yesss!) To Telekom Austria for EUR 390 million, announced it. </p>
<p> The agreement, subject to approval of regulatory authorities telecom and competition, should be effective in mid-2012. </p>
<p> THE ASIAN ASSETS IN EUROPE </p>
<p> Asian societies, with substantial funding, have increased the asset purchases in Europe in recent times while the euro area is mired in debt crisis. </p>
<p> Chinese Shandong Heavy Industry has acquired last month 75% of Italian yacht maker Ferretti Group. And the Chinese sovereign wealth fund China Investment Corp has acquired 8.7% of the holding company of British Thames Water. </p>
<p> The group of Li Ka-shing, looking for infrastructure investments in Europe, has already acquired the UK Northumbrian Water for 2.41 billion pounds last year. He also acquired $ 5.8 billion book distribution network of UK electricity from French EDF in 2010. </p>
<p> Li, nicknamed &quot;Superman&quot; by Hong Kong media for his business acumen, began his career in artificial flowers. It employs 26,000 people in 55 countries. </p>
<p> Hutchison also has activities in the 3G mobile in the UK, Italy and Australia. In the UK, it is in competition with, the number one mobile phone, Everything Everywhere, a subsidiary of Orange and T-Mobile. </p>
<p> FRANCE TELECOM CONTINUES REVIEW OF ASSETS </p>
<p> For France Telecom, Orange Austria exit is the second operation in the curly part of its review of assets, which aims to disengage the group of mature markets low growth while giving rise to additional returns to shareholders. </p>
<p> The operator has already defeated its subsidiary Orange Switzerland, sold at the end of December to fund Apax Partners for 1.6 billion euros. </p>
<p> In a statement, the group was pleased to have reached a new milestone in its &quot;strategy to optimize the asset portfolio.&quot; </p>
<p> Analysts at Raymond James estimate that the incumbent is likely to announce a program of share repurchases by an amount of up to 800 million euros, half of the proceeds of both sales . </p>
<p> &quot;This would not enough to pay half of the minority interests of Mobistar while the other half could be addressed by potential tax synergies&quot;, added the analysts in reference reference to the Belgian operator France Telecom which is the majority shareholder. </p>
<p> At 12:30, the action of the French group was down 0.22% to 11.4750 euros while the CAC 40 rose 0.41%. </p>
<p> The title of Hutchison has in turn made up 3.8% to 76.20 Hong Kong dollars to the announcement of the transaction in a generally stable market. </p>
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		<link>http://success-fengshui.com/287/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 11 Nov 2011 17:30:07 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that there is a definite risk that the major economies fall into recession, unless their authorities take urgent measures to stimulate growth. 
 In a note which had been prepared for the G20 summit held in Cannes last week, but was not published until Friday, the Fund believes that [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that there is a definite risk that the major economies fall into recession, unless their authorities take urgent measures to stimulate growth. </p>
<p> In a note which had been prepared for the G20 summit held in Cannes last week, but was not published until Friday, the Fund believes that the recovery of advanced economies patina. </p>
<p> &quot;Paralysis and inconsistency have exacerbated the uncertainty, loss of confidence and increased tension of the financial market,&quot; he diagnosed.</p>
<p> The most advanced countries should urgently propose program medium-term fiscal consolidation credible and further reform the financial sector, while the emerging edge must accelerate the appreciation of their currencies, he said. </p>
<p> In particular, the IMF observes, there is &quot;considerable uncertainty&quot; about how to achieve fiscal sustainability in the United States, Japan and some countries in the euro area. </p>
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		<title>Shale gas: the repeal of three licenses is formalized</title>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 13 Oct 2011 18:25:08 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[An order of revocation was published in the Official Gazette on Thursday. It provides for removal of three licenses for shale gas of 64 in the south of France. A manifestation of anti-shale gas in the National Assembly, 10 May 2011.
 The order of revocation of three licenses for shale gas from Total and the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>An order of revocation was published in the Official Gazette on Thursday. It provides for removal of three licenses for shale gas of 64 in the south of France. A manifestation of anti-shale gas in the National Assembly, 10 May 2011.
<p> The order of revocation of three licenses for shale gas from Total and the U.S. Schuepbach in the south of France was published in the Official Gazette Thursday, confirming the government&#39;s announcement on 3 October. The three exclusive licenses for oil exploration so-called &quot;Montelimar&quot; (Total) &quot;haves&quot; and &quot;Villeneuve de Berg&quot; (Schuepach), which had been granted in March 2010, are repealed, according to the decree of the Ministry of Economy, Finance and Industry.</p>
<p> These three licenses cover an area of ​​9,672 km square in seven departments in the south of France, Ardeche, Drome, Vaucluse, Gard, Hérault, Aveyron and Lozère, where they raised a strong mobilization of opponents. The government announced on October 3 the repeal of the three licenses, which he said are the only ones among the 64 research permits oil and gas in France to cover only those shale gas. These repeals are consequential to the enactment of legislation in July banning the controversial technique of hydraulic fracturing used to extract the shale gas, making France the first country to prohibit. </p>
<p> Total expressed its &quot;surprise&quot; at the announcement of the loss of his license, explicitly pointing out that he had engaged in a report to the Department to comply with the law and not to use fracturing.The group, which was waiting for an explanation, has not yet decided whether to make an appeal. In a letter dated Wednesday to head the European shale gas in total, of which AFP has had a copy, the Department of Energy Department estimates that the French oil giant did not &quot;sufficiently explained&quot; the alternative technologies which he intended to use. </p>
<p> &quot;I see you does not adequately explain the alternative technologies that you plan to use as part of an exploration of the potential of shale gas area, thus the government, contrary to the will of the legislature unable to appreciate the reality of your commitment not to use the technique of hydraulic fracturing, &quot;wrote the director. Questioned by AFP, Total declined to comment immediately.In an opinion dated October 10th that the AFP has consulted the General Council of Industry, Energy and Technology (CGIET) estimates that the total license can not be repealed unless it is established that his report was &quot;insufficient in view of the accuracy requirements of the legislature&quot; on the techniques used. </p>
<p> The Texas Schuepbach, in his report, he had said he intended to continue to use hydraulic fracturing, in Bercy, which had automatically excluded. The remaining 61 exploration licenses have been validated them. After the U.S. has waived Toreador Oil shale east of Paris, only eight are for non-conventional hydrocarbons (coal gas), but their owners have all given up fracturing. </p>
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		<title>The Tokyo Stock Exchange ended down 0.4%</title>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 12 Oct 2011 08:25:06 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[The Tokyo Stock Exchange to a halt Wednesday, after three sessions of gains, the disappointing results of the U.S. Alcoa raising fears a negative impact of the debt crisis in the euro zone on third quarter results. 
 The Nikkei lost 0.4%, or 34.78 points to 8738.90 points and the Topix, larger yielded 1.56 point [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Tokyo Stock Exchange to a halt Wednesday, after three sessions of gains, the disappointing results of the U.S. Alcoa raising fears a negative impact of the debt crisis in the euro zone on third quarter results. </p>
<p> The Nikkei lost 0.4%, or 34.78 points to 8738.90 points and the Topix, larger yielded 1.56 point (0.21%) to 753.44 points. </p>
<p> Certain values, including Honda Motor (-2.22%), suffered greater losses, affected by the damage to their plants by flooding in Thailand.</p>
<p> Although investors have bought futures contracts, as well as neglected sectors recently, investors are not convinced that European leaders will address the concerns about the financial system through the measures promised by the end of the month. </p>
<p> &quot;The question of how Europe will recapitalize banks remains,&quot; said Tetsuro Ii, CEO of Commons Asset Management. </p>
<p> The results below expectations Alcoa, attributed to slower growth, weighed on the trend. </p>
<p> &quot;Those who wanted to be reassured by the U.S. results are for expenses,&quot; said Kenichi Hirano, a director at Tachibana Securities. </p>
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		<title>Chinese Geely denies being interested in Saab</title>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 07 Oct 2011 00:25:08 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[The owner of Volvo automobiles, Chinese Geely, denied Thursday be interested in the Swedish manufacturer Saab, after information in the sense of the daily Dagens Nyheter. 
 Saab, which has hardly produced a car for six months, is in receivership.A loan of EUR 70 million guaranteed by the Chinese Zhejiang Youngman Automobile Lotus is still [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The owner of Volvo automobiles, Chinese Geely, denied Thursday be interested in the Swedish manufacturer Saab, after information in the sense of the daily Dagens Nyheter. </p>
<p> Saab, which has hardly produced a car for six months, is in receivership.A loan of EUR 70 million guaranteed by the Chinese Zhejiang Youngman Automobile Lotus is still not activated. </p>
<p> According to Dagens Nyheter, Youngman would withdraw and abandon its commitment to put money into Saab over the long term. </p>
<p> &quot;But Geely is interested in everything, in terms of production and development,&quot; one told the newspaper. </p>
<p> Geely, which acquired another Swedish Volvo cars in 2010, approached the administrator of Saab, is there still told the newspaper. </p>
<p> But Lawrence Ang, executive director of Geely Automobile Holdings, a subsidiary of Hong Kong-listed Geely, denied the information.</p>
<p> &quot;As far as I know, we do not have that kind of project,&quot; he said, stressing that Geely was very busy after its acquisition of Volvo cars. </p>
<p> A Saab spokesman declined to comment. </p>
<p> Ian Fletcher, automotive analyst at IHS, sees no interest in such an alliance. </p>
<p> &quot;Volvo and Saab, in fact, fighting for the same space for years. I think in the end, Volvo would be happy with the release of Saab.&quot; </p>
<p> He recalled that Geely does not need additional production capacity in Sweden and he can do without technology from Saab. </p>
<p> &quot;I see simply no reason they could intervene,&quot; said the analyst. </p>
<p> Saab has gone from crisis to crisis this year.It closed in April, unable to pay its suppliers to whom he owes more than 150 million euros. In August, it was no longer able to pay salaries. </p>
<p> Saab was bought by Spyker, now Swedish Automotive, General Motors in early 2010, as he was leaving another period of bankruptcy. </p>
<p> The sale of the Spyker sports cars in the Swedish Automobile Vladimir Antonov Russian investor has also failed. These cars must now be sold to a private equity investment. </p>
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		<title>The private sector would lose most from the Greek report of the troika</title>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 30 Sep 2011 18:25:06 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[The next report of the international inspectors on the progress of Greece in budgetary matters should play a crucial role in a possible revision of the discount of the private sector, we learn from a reliable source. 
 The report of the &#34;troika&#34; (European Union, European Central Bank, International Monetary Fund) should be completed in [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The next report of the international inspectors on the progress of Greece in budgetary matters should play a crucial role in a possible revision of the discount of the private sector, we learn from a reliable source. </p>
<p> The report of the &quot;troika&quot; (European Union, European Central Bank, International Monetary Fund) should be completed in two to three weeks. </p>
<p> It will determine whether the release of the sixth tranche of eight billion euros is possible under the current aid package, without which the country will fail next month. </p>
<p> If the report is lowering growth forecasts, while revenue projections will be.</p>
<p> As a result, the financing needs of Greece will be greater than expected on July 21 when the leaders of the euro area had agreed to a new rescue plan 109 billion euros and a program debt exchange where the private sector contribution is made by accepting a loss of 21%. </p>
<p> &quot;The general may have changed since the last overhaul and the forecast on growth also Greek,&quot; said an official of the euro area. </p>
<p> If Greece was facing greater financial needs, the States of the euro area would probably not bear alone the extra cost.They could ask the private sector to contribute that would be greater than the expected 21% discount. </p>
<p> &quot;This is a discussion that takes place,&quot; said another official of the euro area. </p>
<p> Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos said in Parliament last Friday that he saw only three scenarios to resolve the crisis of sovereign debt. One of them involves a defect ordered at a discount of 50% of the debt obligations held by investors. </p>
<p> &quot;The question is whether the current approach leads to a yes or no viable solution.So far, there is no definitive opinion on it (&#8230;) it is the Commission, the IMF and the ECB to decide whether possible or impossible, &quot;the official added the euro area. </p>
<p> GROWTH WEAKER THAN EXPECTED </p>
<p> The representatives of the troika have planned in June that the Greek economy would contract by 3.8% in 2011, but growth would then resume at a rate of 0.6% in 2012 and 2.1% in 2013. </p>
<p> However, Evangelos Venizelos said on September 15 in Parliament that Greece is still in recession in 2012. </p>
<p> &quot;If the troika think that Greece will not experience growth through 2013 and 2014, the assumptions of the second rescue plan will be changed,&quot; said a third source.</p>
<p> &quot;The additional funds can either be borne by governments, which would be very difficult politically, and then shared with the private sector,&quot; they added. </p>
<p> The report of the troika should probably coincide with the completion of the ratification process of the parliaments of member countries of the eurozone about expanding the powers of the European Financial Stability (EFSF). </p>
<p> The Austrian parliament on Friday approved the extension of the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) a large majority.</p>
<p> Slovakia, which is expected to approve the strengthening of EFSF by 14 October, along with Malta and the Netherlands, one of three countries in the euro area does not yet have approved the reform agreed at EFSF EU summit on 21 July. </p>
<p> Under the reform EFSF decided at the EU summit on 21 July, the fund will have new powers &quot;preventive&quot; allowing him to purchase obligations of Member States of the euro area, to issue a precautionary credit lines and to lend to states in the region to recapitalize their banks. </p>
<p> &quot;A deeper discount could be considered by the rating agencies as a default or selective default,&quot; said another respondent. </p>
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		<title>Crédit Agricole could also reduce its balance sheet</title>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 27 Sep 2011 19:10:08 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[Crédit Agricole will likely path traced by BNP Paribas and Societe Generale by announcing measures to reduce the size of its balance sheet and reduce its financing needs in dollars, analysts and sources close to the bank. 
 Although more focused on retail banking and has already cut the wing in the investment bank, Credit [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Crédit Agricole will likely path traced by BNP Paribas and Societe Generale by announcing measures to reduce the size of its balance sheet and reduce its financing needs in dollars, analysts and sources close to the bank. </p>
<p> Although more focused on retail banking and has already cut the wing in the investment bank, Credit Agricole is still suffering from its ambitious expansion before the crisis, including its acquisition of the Greek bank Emporiki. </p>
<p> It is far from being immunized against the explosive cocktail of rising financing costs in dollars and fears about sovereign debt in the euro area. </p>
<p> Analysts contacted by Reuters, Credit Agricole should take steps similar to those of her peers.</p>
<p> &quot;I fail to see how they (Credit Agricole) could do without it, they are likely to move,&quot; he told Reuters a source familiar with the group&#39;s strategy. </p>
<p> Several analysts based in Paris and with recent access to the management of the bank said in research notes that they expected the sale of toxic assets as well as an optimization plan loans in dollars. </p>
<p> Possible sign of a withdrawal in the bank, Crédit Agricole announced Tuesday that it now runs his consulting business mergers and acquisitions in the Middle East of Paris.</p>
<p> Crédit Agricole, mostly held by regional banks, saw its share price melted nearly half since the beginning of the year (-47.58%), a performance slightly less bad than Socgen ( -51.60%) but well behind that of BNP (-38.07%). </p>
<p> NO EXCEPTION FOR A PRIORI CREDIT AGRICOLE </p>
<p> Societe Generale announced September 12 a series of measures to strengthen its capital base and was followed two days later by the BNP has decided to reduce the size of its balance sheet of about 10% by end 2012 . </p>
<p> &quot;French banks are likely to turn away from the long-term funding in dollars of aircraft or property,&quot; said Citigroup analyst Kinner Lakhani.</p>
<p> &quot;I do not see why Crédit Agricole would be an exception,&quot; said he. </p>
<p> &quot;There will certainly be something in there that taste,&quot; said another analyst based in London. </p>
<p> &quot;They (the bank) need permission from the regional banks is a creature that moves slowly but they need to do something quickly,&quot; it adds. </p>
<p> A spokeswoman for Credit Agricole declined to comment on this information. </p>
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		<title>Out nuclear power will cost 250 billion euros to Germany</title>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Sep 2011 16:15:08 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[The amount of investment necessary to switch to renewable energy amounts to 25 billion euros per year to the burden on businesses, individuals and the state. A nuclear power plant in Bavaria.
 The investment bank of the German state, KfW said Monday at 250 billion euros in total investment needed in Germany by 2020 to [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The amount of investment necessary to switch to renewable energy amounts to 25 billion euros per year to the burden on businesses, individuals and the state. A nuclear power plant in Bavaria.
<p> The investment bank of the German state, KfW said Monday at 250 billion euros in total investment needed in Germany by 2020 to phase out nuclear power and switch to renewable energy. The bank itself &quot;will make available 100 billion euros over the next five years for investments in energy in Germany,&quot; said a statement.KfW believes &quot;to 250 billion euros the amount of additional investment required until 2020&quot; or 25 billion euros per year on average, the burden on businesses, state and individuals. </p>
<p> About 144.6 billion euros of investment are expected to produce renewable energy and 62 billion euros in heating from renewable sources, a detailed study in the bank. Added to 17 billion euros to improve &quot;energy efficiency&quot;, ie limit the mess, from 9.7 to 29000000000 to the power grid, and 5.5 to 10 billion euros for Additional gas-fired plants. The bill is likely to rise even during the actual construction of new equipment and if Germany is given more ambitious targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, KfW said.</p>
<p> The bank, which describes itself as &quot;one of the first global capital in the energy,&quot; said to have provided financial support last year in Germany 80% of new wind turbines located, and 40% of new photovoltaic systems. It also funds the work of building insulation. KfW is involved in providing credit and financial guarantees, at low rates and long-term. The German government decided after the catastrophe of Fukushima off by the end of 2022 all nuclear reactors in the country, while increasing the share of renewable energy, which should represent 80% of the total electricity production in the country in 2050 , against 17% last year. </p>
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		<title>Why China invests in European public debt</title>
		<link>http://success-fengshui.com/why-china-invests-in-european-public-debt/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 14 Sep 2011 10:25:08 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[Beijing&#39;s interest that Europe, its first export market, so the debt crisis in which it is stuck. But its purchases of government bonds in difficulties are by no means a long-term solution, says Xu Bei, an economist at Natixis. Interview. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao visited the Acropolis in Athens with Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Beijing&#39;s interest that Europe, its first export market, so the debt crisis in which it is stuck. But its purchases of government bonds in difficulties are by no means a long-term solution, says Xu Bei, an economist at Natixis. Interview. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao visited the Acropolis in Athens with Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou (October 2010). China reiterated on Wednesday that Europe would remain an investment market for it. China had already committed last year to support other countries in the euro area face the rising cost of sovereign debt, such as Greece, Spain or Portugal.What is its interest in investing in debt deemed at risk?
<p> China First is an economic interest: Europe is the largest market in terms of sales outlets abroad (22% of its exports against 17% for the U.S.). Therefore, it is important for China and European countries are in good economic health, they continue to consume and import products. Second, that it affirms its support for European sovereign debt &quot;secure&quot; as the outstanding debt that has already purchased. Finally, China&#39;s increasing diversification of its foreign exchange reserves in terms of currencies and assets, now dominated by U.S. treasuries. Now we have seen with the debt crisis in the United States, the issue of trust may arise.It is to avoid putting the eggs in one basket. </p>
<p> Is not it also an opportunity to do good business, interest rates on these bonds of sovereign states in difficulty in the euro area is currently very high?
<p> It&#39;s a financial reason can be considered, but I do not think too much. When you look at the policy of managing its foreign exchange reserves practiced by China so far, this is not to make gains in the short term but to invest its huge &#8211; about 3.2 trillion dollars &#8211; exchange reserves. As such, the Italian debt buy &#8211; one of Europe&#39;s most liquid debt &#8211; would be beneficial for China. </p>
<p> And a way to strengthen its presence in Europe?
<p> She was already, through direct investments in European industrial groups.Many economic actors in China are now present in Europe. </p>
<p> How much has China bought sovereign debt problems of countries in the euro area over the past year?
<p> Unfortunately, we do not have any statistics on that. And we do not know the timing of the concrete after (or before!) Official statements of support from Chinese leaders. </p>
<p> The rumor &#8211; later denied &#8211; of an agreement between Beijing and Rome on the redemption of government bonds have been bouncing the exchanges. China Is the savior of the euro area in crisis?
<p> Markets are currently very sensitive and tend to overreact to good news. Or do not deny it: the fact that China buys the debt of power markets is good news because it offers a breath of fresh air to these countries issuers seeking to raise money.But it is a short-term response in no way a solution to end the crisis in the euro area. China can not and will not redeem all the debt of European countries. This does not solve the structural problems of funds from European countries. </p>
<p> In return for its investments in Europe, China calls on EU to recognize his status as a market economy in the World Trade Organization (WTO). What would change for her?
<p> Recognize China as market economy in the WTO will facilitate the resolution of anti-dumping investigation on behalf of China. Since this is not the case for China, the benchmark cost to complete an anti-dumping is the price of a country and not like that of China. China loses more &quot;easily&quot; anti-dumping investigations in the WTO because it is impossible to use its own production costs to assess the existence of dumping. </p>
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		<title>Greece: the failure scenarios</title>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 12 Sep 2011 23:15:15 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[The failure of Greece is now a hyptohèse work for some German officials. But she is not alone. Overview of three options on the table and their consequences. Germany loses patience with Greece and plans to let the country go bankrupt.
 Germany is she about to let go of Greece? While Athens is struggling to [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The failure of Greece is now a hyptohèse work for some German officials. But she is not alone. Overview of three options on the table and their consequences. Germany loses patience with Greece and plans to let the country go bankrupt.
<p> Germany is she about to let go of Greece? While Athens is struggling to secure new loans from its international creditors (EU, ECB and IMF), Berlin board behind the scenes on a possible bankruptcy of the country. &quot;To stabilize the euro, it should no longer be short-term no-think about some options. Among them, there is an emergency orderly insolvency of Greece,&quot; he told the daily Die Welt Philipp Rösler published Monday, German Economy Minister and leader of Free Democrats, a partner of the CDU Angela Merkel in the ruling coalition. And these are not empty words.According to the German magazine Der Spiegel, the teams of the finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, are working on the subject. The three options now to Greece. </p>
<p> Scenario rose: Greece gets new funding
<p> In early September, the unexpected departure of Greece by the &quot;troika&quot; &#8211; the expert mission of donors to oversee the national accounts &#8211; has reinforced concerns about the country&#39;s ability to meet its commitments to reduce the deficit . Especially as social protest against the structural reforms is increasingly strong. Monday, taxis, tax agents, and customs were on strike. Despite the anger of the street, the Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou pledged Saturday to hold unswervingly the rigorous efforts.Sunday, the Greek finance minister, Evangelos Venizelos, introduced new measures to save two billion euros, which will limit the country&#39;s deficit to 17.1 billion euros. </p>
<p> Satisfecit of Europe has announced the return in the coming days of the troika. It could agree to the payment of a further $ 8 billion of loans in the first bailout of Greece in 2010. Without this loan, Athens was bound to default. In addition, many uncertainties in the second aid plan of 160 billion euros to Greece, adopted on 21 July: the expected participation of the private sector is not yet defined, Slovakia is reluctant to vote for this agreement while Finland wants guarantees.And even if the finance ministers of the Eurogroup manage to overcome them Friday at a summit in Poland, Greece is by no means out of business. The new rescue plan is supposed to stabilize the economy until late 2014 that Hellenic. Or Greek debt is considered &quot;out of control&quot; &#8230; Greek by economists themselves. An opinion shared by many economists and political leaders in Europe. For them, bankruptcy is inevitable for Greece.</p>
<p> Scenario gray Greece bankruptcy but remains in the euro area
<p> &quot;With a debt of more than 160% of GDP in 2012, structurally high levels given the sustainable enhancement of sovereign risk, low growth potential and flexibility of the economy limited, the requirements of the budget surplus are presented in Greece just out of reach &quot;, wrote in July in the magazine L&#39;Expansion Jean-Pierre Petit, president of the Journal of the green economy. According to experts of the think tank Open Europe, Greece must be missing at least half the debt that it once again become unsustainable. Such a bankruptcy would obviously have implications for the country&#39;s major creditors, namely the Greek banks themselves, the ECB and European banks. </p>
<p> Hellenic banks hold about one quarter of the Greek public debt.As for European banks, including the French, they should be able to absorb the shock, as they are offloaded heavily in recent months of their assets Greek rulers. A partial default of Greece certainly provoke a violent shock to the world economy, but would be &quot;easier to care&quot; that if Lehman Brothers, said Patrick Artus, director of economic research at Natixis, quoted in an article in Le Monde dated June 22. The question is how the country itself can survive such a scenario. </p>
<p> Black scenario: Greece is bankrupt and out of the euro area
<p> Certainly, a partial default of 50% would make government debt more sustainable. But in parallel, while the Greek banking system is likely to collapse. Not to mention that the decision would be evidence of lack of solidarity that exists in Europe. Under these conditions, we do not see why Athens would remain in the euro area.With a return to the drachma, the Greek government could use the weapon of devaluation, thus restoring its competitiveness in the export and thus revive its economy. It is also a way to reduce significantly the debt of the country, since the value of the assets would be reduced by 55% according to Natixis. But it will not be without negative consequences for Greece: the devaluation of the drachma and the need for monetization of public debt will create a persistent inflation, while the interests of sovereign debt markets will soar. </p>
<p> For the euro area, the cost seems a priori limited: Greece is only 2% of GDP. And now, the country in recession tend to dampen growth in Euroland. The output of Greece alone does not change much to the economic situation in the euro area including the &quot;economic quality&quot; could even be strengthened.Except that the event would undermine the ability of European leaders to manage economic crises through its members. Therefore, the markets would have no reason to believe in the financial strength of the euro. They will not hesitate to attack the debt of other countries considered fragile &#8211; Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Italy and even France, pushing up their borrowing interest rates to unsustainable levels. One by one, these countries could also be forced to leave the eurozone. Eventually, a failure of Greece could therefore lead to an outright explosion in the euro area. What would be worse for the world economy that the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. </p>
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